Aftab Anwar Baloch

Climate change is the most important issue of present age; Pakistan is one of the first countries to see its early warning signals and the last to have a chance to prevent it from occurring. Living in a bubble of ignorance can only get us so far; our globe is indeed a scene of melting glaciers, heavy rainfall rising floods, animal extinctions, extreme weather events and the list goes on.

Climate change affects all regions around the world. Polar ice shields are melting and the sea is rising. In some regions, extreme weather events and rainfall are becoming more common while others are experiencing more extreme heat waves and droughts. Climate change is expected to lead an increase of precipitation in many areas. We saw this in 2022 with deadly floods in Europe, as well as record-breaking floods in China, and a combination of extreme winter temperatures and hurricanes in the United States.

Since 1880, the Earth’s temperature has gone up about 0.14°F per decade. Since 2005, green- house gases have been trapping more heat in the earth’s atmosphere, which is making the average temperature rise. Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

Several areas of the world experienced extreme heat waves during past few years accounted for record-breaking temperatures and, in some regions, heat-related deaths. Heat waves were especially notable in East Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Australia, Western Europe, the United States, and southern South America. Europe experienced its hottest season on record in the summer of 2022. The deadliest heat waves in the Europe killed over 26,000 people, 11,000 of which were in France.

A study estimated that global climate change will cause approximately 250,000 additional human deaths annually between 2030 and 2050 (WHO, 2014). The study did not evaluate all environmental causes of death that could potentially be influenced by climate change, such as river flooding and water scarcity. It is estimated that the human welfare costs of global climate change will range between $2 and $4 billion per year by 2030 (WHO, 2018).

developing countries. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several years with significant impacts on the environment and people. Pakistan is the fifth country in the world that is most affected by climate change and consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from numerous extreme weather events.

In the last couple of years, there have been more floods in Pakistan. Most of the flooding from monsoon rains happens in Sindh and Punjab. Most of the flooding from hill torrents happens in KPK, Balochistan, and Gilgit Baltistan, which are all hilly areas. In 2010, Pakistan’s national floods affected more than 20 million people and damaged over 20 percent of the land area (Source: Government of Pakistan), which also considered as the worst flood in the country’s history. In 2015, Pakistan was hit by another flood in the Chenab River, which killed hundreds of people and caused heavy damage due to destruction of depilated and vulnerable buildings. In August 2020, just three days of rain caused a lot of damage. Thousands of people died, their homes, cattle, and crops were destroyed and many more became homeless. But the 2022 floods were even worst. In 2022, national rainfall for the month of July was significantly (by 180%) above the average and stood as the record wettest July since 1961 (Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department). Torrential rains coupled with riverine, urban and flash flooding led to an unprecedented disaster in Pakistan that caught the country off guarded. The impacts of flooding will be felt in Pakistan over the long term, including damage to buildings infrastructure, agriculture, loss of human beings animals livestock, health and nutrition.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif joined UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Geneva, calling upon leaders to assist the country with recovery and reconstruction aid. The flood-torn nation asked countries for $8 billion over the next three years.

Climate change and overusing water resources have on the other resulted drought in Pakistan which happens more frequently last longer, and are worst. Droughts cause people to migrate to fertile area and lead to famine, hunger and results in heavy toll of deaths. In Pakistan, there are places where droughts happen particularly in desert areas because it rains too little. As a result, many people have died and babies are getting sick from lack of food. People living in the Thar and Cholistan deserts have to deal with scorching heat (temp above 55 Celsius) in the desert areas and a lack of water both for drinking and harvesting due to scarcity of rainfall,

In May 2022, a severe heat wave was recorded in Pakistan; the temperature reached 51°C. The weather is getting warmer every day because of climate change. Pakistan is one of the places in the world where the temperature is rising up with every passing year. Jacobabad is one of the hottest places on the planet. In June 2021, its highest recorded temperature reached an unbearable 52°C. The highest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan is 53.7 °C which was recorded in Turbat, Balochistan on May 28, 2017. In 2015, about 700 people died of heat strokes in Karachi, and about 1200 people died because of heat waves in Pakistan as a whole. From 1997 to 2021, Pakistan had more than 136 very hot spells. Climate change makes such heat waves 100 times more likely. Without climate change heat waves, more severe and that those which occurred in 2015 are expected to arrive one time in 312 years. Now they are expected to occur after every 3 years.

South Asia has experienced average annual temperatures rise by 1.0 °C to 1.5 °C and this trend is projected to continue in the future. The threat of aggravating heat is also reflected in the increasing death toll reported from extreme temperatures in the region.

Studies show that intense cyclones, storms, and typhoons are increasing due to the warming climate and will continue for the foreseeable future. Averting the escalation of the most severe natural events can be done through rapid decarbonisation of our economy and society and the deployment of local adaptation strategies.

In October 2021, the fearsome Cyclone Shaheen was about to hit the Sindh’s coastline but fortunately it lost the impact near Balochistan’s coast and curved towards Oman. Despite that, it did induce high winds, light to moderate rainfall; at times isolated heavy falls, in Karachi. Several areas were inundated and submerged under water.

In June 2023, Cyclone Biparjoy hit Keti Bunder in Sindh and the Indian Gujarat coast. Storm hit Gujarat, India, with a high wind speed of 108km/h that resultantly injured 22 peoples and did damages upon land surface including uprooting of trees bill boards and electric poles. However, the storm lost its speed as it crosses Gujarat, India and just made landfall on the Keti Bunder coast, Pakistan.

Climate change impacted Pakistan in various ways, and some of the causes specific to Pakistan include:

  • Deforestation: Our country rely heavily on agriculture and logging, leading to significant deforestation. Trees act as carbon sinks, absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Deforestation reduces this capacity, contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Agricultural Practices: Traditional agricultural methods in our region often involve slash-and-burn techniques, releasing carbon and other greenhouse gases. Additionally, livestock farming generates methane emissions.
  • Land Use Change: Rapid urbanization and expansion of agriculture in the region also leads to changes in land use, altering the carbon balance and increasing emissions.
  • Lack of Access to Clean Energy: Pakistan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels for energy production due to limited access to clean and renewable energy sources. This reliance on coal and oil contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Industrial Development: Industrialization growth without adequate environmental regulations, resulting in higher emissions from industrial processes.
  • Waste Management: Inadequate waste management and disposal practices, including open burning of waste, lead to the release of methane and CO2, further exacerbating climate change.
  • Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events: Lack of resources and infrastructure to cope with extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and hurricanes, which are intensified by climate change.
  • Addressing climate change in less developed countries requires international cooperation, financial support, and technology transfer to promote sustainable development and reduce emissions. It is essential to consider the specific vulnerabilities and challenges these countries face to implement effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

While the effects of climate change are highly region-specific, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that mean surface temperatures are rising and extreme weather events will increase over time. These changes will disrupt expected environmental processes and human activity. The climate change projections of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report for South Asia as a whole suggest that heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent; and that both annual and summer monsoon rainfall will increase, with more variations by year. Consequently, this will significantly impact the productivity and efficiency of water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and energy.

General future projections for Pakistan’s climate are:

  • Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be higher than the global average.
  • Projected temperature increase in northern parts is expected to be higher than the southern parts of the
  • The frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to increase
  • Pakistan’s rainfall projections do not indicate any systematic changing
  • An increasing trend in the rainfall over the Upper Indus Basin and decreasing trend in the Lower Indus

Each year, climate change negotiators meet in locations around the globe, to discuss and take decisions on how best to tackle climate change. In November 2022, the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt hosted the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, with a view to building on previous successes and paving the way for future ambition to effectively tackle the global challenge of climate change.

Pakistan participated in the Sharm el- Sheikh under the leadership of Mian Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan, and Senator Sherry Rehman, Federal Minister for Climate Change led the overall negotiation process of the COP27 on behalf of Pakistan.

Pakistan highlighted that the floods have severely compounded the economic challenges of Pakistan, and inflicted a severe exogenous shock to the country. The World Bank has estimated Pakistan flood losses at $30 bn. Pakistan articulated its contention by echoing the following slogan in all its engagements: “What goes on in Pakistan (in terms of climate change) will not stay in Pakistan”. The devastating recent floods in Pakistan were nature’s memo to humanity delivered through Pakistan to the world urging the developed countries to reduce emissions and help developing countries adapt to global heating.

It’s imperative that Pakistan capitalize on its unique position at COP27 and provides tangible steps and actions that the government will take to address its “natural security” crisis as international actors weigh aid commitments.

Pakistan’s economy is mostly based on agriculture, and a change in temperature, shortage of water, or a change in how the monsoons work can make millions of people’s lives very hard, vulnerable and unbearable. Changes in the climate will have a direct impact on the quality and quantity of food that can be grown. By 2040, the average temperature across the country is expected to rise by 0.5 degrees Celsius, and 8– 10% of all crops, or 30,000 Pakistani Rupees per acre, will be lost due to extreme weather and the climate changes will create food safety and security problems in Pakistan which may result in riots and instability in the country if a prudent policy and immediate preventive measures are not timely taken.

Below are some of the threats and opportunities in Pakistan that are associated with the climate change:

Threats

Water Scarcity: Pakistan heavily relies on glaciers melt water and monsoon rains for its water supply. With rising temperatures, glaciers are melting faster, leading to reduced water flow in rivers and increased risk of water scarcity, particularly during dry seasons.

Extreme Weather Events: Climate change is associated with an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall, which can lead to loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and disruptions to agriculture.

Agriculture: Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are affecting harvesting and ultimately adversely effecting agricultural productivity. Heat stress, water scarcity, and changing growing seasons can reduce crop yields, impacting food security and livelihoods of farmers.

Sea Level Rise: Pakistan has a long coastline along the Arabian Sea. Rising sea levels pose a threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and agriculture, leading to potential displacement and economic losses. Recent typhoons and heavy rains have adversely affected areas adjacent to coastal lines both in Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

Biodiversity Loss: Climate change can disrupt eco-systems, leading to shifts in habitats and loss of bio-diversity. This can affect the balance of ecosystems, causing further environmental and economic challenges.

Opportunities

Renewable Energy: Pakistan has a significant potential for renewable energy, including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. Investing in these clean energy sources can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase energy security, and create green jobs.

Water Management: Improved water management practices, such as water conservation, rainwater harvesting, and efficient irrigation systems, can help mitigate the impact of water scarcity and improve water use efficiency.

Climate-Smart Agriculture: Adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, such as crop diversification, drought-resistant varieties, and sustainable land management, can enhance resilience and productivity in the agricultural sector.

Adaptation Strategies: Implementing effective adaptation strategies, such as building climate- resilient infrastructure, early warning systems for extreme weather events, and climate- sensitive urban planning, can help communities cope with the impacts of climate change.

International Collaboration: Pakistan can work with other countries and international organizations particularly developed countries and highlight its concerns and effects which will not only affect Pakistan or the regional countries but to a large extent the world and  make a strong case for getting support from the developed countries and other international organizations in order to get access for climate finance, technology transfer, and expertise to address climate changes and challenges effectively during the present time and for the incoming years.

Overall, climate change poses significant threats to Pakistan’s environment, economy, and society. We need climate action now, or these impacts will only intensify. Considering the tough facts, the Pakistani government must take proactive measures and adopt sustainable strategies to combat the detrimental effects of climate change and turn some challenges into opportunities for a more resilient and sustainable future.

The concerned authorities start awareness programs and work with rural communities to promote Climate Smart Agriculture, an approach that helps families adapt to better crops, growing techniques, and soil improvement practices in response to the changing and often unpredictable environment, and also work to strengthen links with the private sector to facilitate access to supplies and equipment. Further, a lot of work is required around Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), which protects the lives and livelihoods of communities and individuals who are most vulnerable to disasters or emergencies and make sure that those who are most exposed to the hazards are able to better anticipate, survive, and recover.

We need to find the solutions that protect, sustainably manage, and restore natural or modified ecosystems to address societal challenges. Nature-based solutions not only help to offset the immediate land degradation caused by climate change, but also address challenges like food security, water security, public health, and social and economic development.

The writer is Customs, Tariff and Trade Expert

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