Rabia Mustafa
World Population Day, observed annually on 11 July, is one of the most significant international observances dedicated to raising awareness about population issues. Established by the United Nations in 1989, the day encourages governments, policymakers, researchers, and communities to reflect on how demographic trends influence economic growth, environmental sustainability, public health, gender equality, and human well-being. While population debates have traditionally focused on the number of people inhabiting the planet, World Population Day is about real issues, which are about population size, the quality of life, opportunities, and choices available to people.
The importance of this discussion becomes even clearer when viewed through the dramatic population growth of the modern world. In 1937, the global population stood at approximately 2.3 billion. It increased to 2.7 billion in 1954, 3.0 billion in 1960, 4.3 billion in 1978, and 5.9 billion in 1997. By 2020, the world’s population had reached 7.8 billion, highlighting the unprecedented pace of demographic change over the past century.
These figures illustrate not only rapid population growth but also humanity’s increasing pressure on natural ecosystems. They are drawn from David Attenborough’s powerful witness statement in his book A Life on Our Planet. Having spent decades documenting nature across every continent, Attenborough provides first-hand testimony of how human expansion has transformed the planet. His observations remind us that population discussions cannot be separated from issues of climate change, biodiversity loss, environmental degradation, and sustainable resource management.
Yet, while environmental concerns remain important, the global population debate has evolved considerably. For decades, many policymakers feared overpopulation as the principal demographic challenge. Today, however, many countries face an entirely different reality. Fertility rates are falling, populations are ageing, and increasing numbers of young adults are struggling to achieve the families they hope to build. Recognising this changing landscape, the World Population Day 2026 theme—”Realizing the hopes and aspirations of young people – today and for the future”—shifts attention away from counting people and towards understanding the opportunities, barriers, and choices shaping the lives of young people.
This year’s theme is strongly supported by the latest United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Demographic Futures Survey, one of the largest international demographic studies ever conducted. Surveying more than 108,000 adults aged 18 to 39 across 73 countries, the research challenges many long-held assumptions about declining fertility and changing family structures.
Perhaps its most significant finding is that two-thirds of the world’s population now live in countries where fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Contrary to common belief, declining fertility does not mean young people no longer value marriage or family life. The survey found that more than two-thirds of respondents still prefer marriage, with 36 percent favouring marriage before cohabitation and 34 percent preferring marriage after cohabitation. Only 16 percent expressed a preference for remaining single. Likewise, two children remain the most commonly desired family size across most regions of the world. These findings demonstrate that aspirations for family life remain remarkably stable; what has changed is the ability to realise those aspirations.
The principal barrier is economic insecurity. Approximately 81 percent of respondents identified financial security as the most important consideration when deciding whether to form a partnership, while 57 percent cited housing costs and broader economic pressures as the primary obstacles to marriage and parenthood. Stable employment, affordable housing, reliable healthcare, and confidence in the future have become essential conditions for starting a family.
These findings have significant policy implications. Population change will inevitably influence labour markets, healthcare systems, pension schemes, education planning, housing demand, and economic productivity. However, demographic challenges cannot be solved simply by encouraging higher birth rates. Rather, governments must create environments in which young people can achieve the families they already aspire to have. Affordable housing, secure employment, quality education, accessible childcare, flexible workplaces, comprehensive healthcare, gender equality, and respect for reproductive rights are not merely social programmes, they are fundamental demographic policies.
Pakistan presents a markedly different demographic profile from many developed countries experiencing population ageing and below-replacement fertility. Pakistan’s population is estimated at approximately 255.2 million in 2025, making it the fifth most populous country in the world. Although fertility has steadily declined over recent decades, the country’s total fertility rate remains around 3.5 children per woman, well above the global replacement level.
Pakistan also possesses one of the world’s youngest populations. Nearly one-third of its citizens are under the age of 15, while the annual population growth rate remains approximately 1.6 percent. This youthful demographic structure represents both an extraordinary opportunity and a significant policy challenge.
If Pakistan invests effectively in quality education, universal healthcare, technical and vocational skills, employment generation, innovation, entrepreneurship, and gender equality, its young population can become a powerful demographic dividend capable of driving sustained economic growth and national development. Conversely, if these investments are delayed, continuing population growth may intensify pressures on education systems, healthcare services, employment markets, housing, food security, water resources, and urban infrastructure.
The findings of the UNFPA global survey, therefore, carry important lessons for Pakistan. Although fertility remains comparatively high, many young Pakistanis increasingly face the same challenges identified across the world: unemployment, financial insecurity, rising housing costs, and uncertainty about the future. As fertility gradually declines over the coming decades, Pakistan has a unique opportunity to learn from countries already confronting ageing populations by adopting forward-looking policies that empower young people to make informed choices regarding education, employment, marriage, and parenthood.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s demographic future will depend not only on the number of people it has, but on how effectively it develops the potential of its young population. Investments made today in education, health, decent work, social protection, and equal opportunities will determine whether the country transforms its population into a source of prosperity or faces increasing social and economic pressures.
World Population Day is not about numbers; it is about people, opportunities, dignity, and choice. Around the world, the central demographic challenge is increasingly ensuring that young people can build the families they aspire to have. For Pakistan, the challenge is equally significant: transforming its large and youthful population into a healthy, educated, skilled, and economically productive generation.
Whether countries are confronting declining fertility or continuing population growth, the policy response remains remarkably similar: invest in people. Affordable housing, quality education, decent employment, universal healthcare, reproductive health services, gender equality, and youth empowerment are not simply social priorities, they are investments in sustainable development, economic resilience, and national prosperity.
